Polls - Dec 5th

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Just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Joe Biden’s win over President Trump a month after the former vice president’s clear victory of more than 7 million votes nationally and a convincing electoral-vote margin that exactly matched Trump’s 2016 tally.

Two Republicans consider Trump the winner despite all evidence showing otherwise. And another 220 GOP members of the House and Senate — about 88 percent of all Republicans serving in Congress — will simply not say who won the election.

Those are the findings of a Washington Post survey of all 249 Republicans in the House and Senate that began the morning after Trump posted a 46-minute video Wednesday evening in which he wrongly claimed he had defeated Biden and leveled wild and unsubstantiated allegations of “corrupt forces” who stole the outcome from the sitting president.

Democrats should stop pressing “defund the police” and other hot-button social issues if they want to stay competitive in 2022, according to new research from longtime Democratic pollster Douglas Schoen.

“The data says to me that if the Democrats go the progressive route they can lose the House and the Senate overwhelmingly in 2022,” Schoen told The Post. “The incoming Biden administration has to understand that unless they take a moderate path, that is a likely potential outcome for the Democrats.”

Schoen is a longtime pollster for Mike Bloomberg, who worked on the billionaire’s fly-by-night presidential campaign. His firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, spoke to 1,000 respondents in a post-election poll between Nov. 8 and 9.

When asked whether Joe Biden’s victory was a “mandate for centrist policies” or a “mandate for progressive policies,” 62% of respondents said centrist, compared to just 28% for progressive.

Let’s start this piece with some appropriate caveats about polling in general. 2020 was not a great year for the polling industry. Many polls, especially in Midwestern states and in Maine, vastly overestimated Democratic performance. The polls predicted that Joe Biden would win the presidential race, and he did, but he had comfortable polling leads in several states that turned out to be much closer.

That said, pollsters in Georgia did a pretty good job with the presidential and Senate races. The FiveThirtyEight polling average predicted that Biden would win the state by 1.2 points. He wound up winning by 0.2 points. So the polls were only off by 1 percentage point, and close in the initial Senate races, too. That suggests that Georgia polling is more reliable than the polls in many other states.

Which brings us to a new SurveyUSA poll looking at the January 5 runoff elections in Georgia, which will decide which party controls the United States Senate (SurveyUSA is an “A” rated pollster, according to FiveThirtyEight). The topline in this poll is that Democrat Raphael Warnock leads appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler by a 52-45 margin. Meanwhile, Democrat Jon Ossoff leads incumbent Republican Sen. David Purdue by a smaller 50-48 margin.

The survey, taken December 1-3 among 1,083 respondents, examined the forthcoming Senate runoff races between Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) and Jon Ossoff (D) as well as Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and Rev. Raphael Warnock (D).

The survey showed Ossoff and Perdue are statistically tied, with 48 percent and 47.3 percent, respectively. The race between Loeffler and Warnock is not as narrow, with the incumbent leading Warnock 50.2 percent to 45.3 percent. Nearly five percent remain undecided in each race.

Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar Group’s chief pollster, added that the survey “shed some light on Georgia voters opinions of whether the #Presidential elections were compromised enough to change the outcome.”

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